As we look back on markets last week, we see mixed results, with none of the major domestic indexes gaining or losing more than 1%.[1] The S&P 500 was down 0.10% for the week, and the Dow gave back 0.39%, once again failing to reach 20,000.[2] On the other hand, the NASDAQ increased by 0.96% and reached its sixth record close in 2017 on Friday—pushed by a 1.36% rally for Facebook after Raymond James upgraded its stock.[3] International stocks in the MSCI EAFE added 0.82%.[4]
What We Saw Last Week
Big banks reported earnings. Earnings season is upon us. On Friday, we saw JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and PNC Financial beat profit expectations.[5] These positive results add some weight to the post-election financials rally, where financial-sector equities in the S&P 500 have added 17% since the election.[6] A number of other banks will report this week, and we will look to see if their performance also matches the growth we have seen so far.
Retail sales grew. The December monthly retail sales report showed a 0.6% increase, slightly below the 0.7% consensus expectations.[7] With this growth, retail sales are now up 4.1% in the past year.[8] However, not all retailers are performing well. General merchandise stores are suffering as consumers continue to shop online and move away from in-person retail stores. We see the results of this trend in declining retails sales numbers and large companies announcing store closures, including Macy’s, Sears, CVS, and many more.[9]
Consumer sentiment was high but divided. The University of Michigan’s monthly report on consumer sentiment was 98.1, just below predictions but still near highs we have not seen since 2004.[10] One interesting finding in the report is a strong partisan divide in consumer confidence. Richard Curtin, director of the consumer survey, described “extreme differences” between people’s expectations for whether new political policies would help or hurt the economy.[11] He reminded people that the most impact on consumer sentiment will come from “actual changes in the economy” as a result of Trump’s work, which we will have to wait a few months to see.[12]
What We’re Looking at in the Week Ahead
Earnings season continues. The markets will be watching earnings closely during this four-day trading week—especially to see if other major financial institutions also beat expectations. Some analysts believe that to keep the current market rally going and demonstrate that there is weight behind the post-election growth, we’ll need to see excellent reports from most companies.[13]
A number of high-profile companies report this week, including:[14]
- Morgan Stanley
- Goldman Sachs
- Citigroup
- American Express
- Netflix
- IBM
- UnitedHealth Group
- General Electric Co.
Donald Trump becomes President. While earnings reports will be important to track, another event looms larger in many people’s minds: Donald Trump’s inauguration. After he takes the oath of office Friday morning and becomes President of the United States, we will begin to see how the market’s expectations for Trump’s policies match reality.
From trade to taxes to infrastructure and beyond, the next few months will give us a number of insights into how U.S. policies may change. Uncertainty remains, and we will watch for political developments that may affect the markets. In addition, we will continue to focus on the fundamentals that provide deep insight into how the economy is performing—and how we can strive to keep you on track toward your goals.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
Monday: U.S. Markets Closed in Observance of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day
Wednesday: Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production, Housing Market Index
Thursday: Housing Starts
| Data as of 1/13/2017 | 1-Week | Since 1/1/17 | 1-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 | -0.10% | 1.60% | 20.33% | 15.29% | 5.90% |
| DOW | -0.39% | 0.62% | 23.12% | 12.02% | 5.84% |
| NASDAQ | 0.96% | 3.55% | 23.16% | 21.13% | 12.27% |
| U.S. Corporate Bond Index | 0.22% | 0.56% | 4.99% | 4.20% | 6.86% |
| International | 0.82% | 2.60% | 7.19% | 4.07% | -1.77% |
| Data as of 1/13/2017 | 1 mo. | 6 mo. | 1 yr. | 5 yr. | 10 yr. |
| Treasury Yields (CMT) | 0.52% | 0.61% | 0.82% | 1.90% | 2.40% |
Notes: All index returns exclude reinvested dividends, and the 5-year and 10-year returns are annualized. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Treasury.gov. International performance is represented by the MSCI EAFE Index. Corporate bond performance is represented by the SPUSCIG. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
Tax Tips
Help Keep Your Personal Data Safe
As we rely more and more on digital devices to store important information, protecting your details is essential—especially as cybercriminals continue stealing large amounts of personal data. Here are steps you can take today to protect your privacy and information.
Secure Your Computer
You must keep your computer safeguarded from external threats. Be sure that you:
- Use security software and set it to update automatically. Tools to use include a firewall, virus/malware protection, and file encryption for sensitive data.
- Don’t leave personal information lying around, similar as you would with cash.
- Learn about companies online before doing any business with them.
- Only give personal information over encrypted websites (look for “https” addresses).
- Use strong passwords that aren’t easy to guess, and make sure you protect them.
- Backup all your files regularly.
Avoid Phishing and Malware
Phishing means that a cybercriminal is trying to defraud your personal account and compromise your financial information by impersonating another company. Be aware of fake attempts for cybercriminals to contact you, and be sure to:
- Avoid phishing emails, texts, or calls that appear to be the IRS, tax companies, and other well known businesses; instead of clicking on any suspicious links, go directly to the company’s website.
- Never automatically open email attachments from unknown senders—or even emails from friends and family that look suspicious, as someone could have hacked them.
- Download and install software from websites you know and trust.
- Use a pop-up blocker, which you can usually customize by going to your computer’s settings.
Make sure everyone in your family knows how to safely use a computer.
Protect Personal Information
Whether your data is on- or offline, you need to take measures to keep your personal information away from criminals. Follow these steps to help protect yourself:
- Do not carry around your Social Security card or documents with your SSN. Keep these stored in a safe location at home, and only pull them out when you need to reference the documents.
- Do not overshare personal information on social media. Information about past addresses, new car purchases, and your children help identity thieves pose as you.
- Encrypt (digital) or lock up (hard files) old tax returns, and shred tax documents before throwing them away.
- Be skeptical of IRS Impersonators. The IRS will never call you with threats of jail or lawsuits, nor send you unsolicited emails suggesting you have a refund or need to update your account. The IRS also never requests your sensitive information online. All of these actions are scams. You can forward any IRS-related scam emails to phishing@irs.gov. Report IRS-impersonation phone calls to gov.
Take These Additional Steps
You can further protect your information by making sure to regularly do the following:
- Check your credit report annually and your bank and credit card statements often.
- Review your Social Security Administration records annually. Sign up for “My Social Security” atgov.
- Review identify-theft details at gov/identitytheft promptly if you’ve been a victim of an affected tax account.
Tip courtesy of IRS.gov[15]
Share the Wealth of Knowledge!
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Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.
Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets.
International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.
The Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of stocks of technology companies and growth companies.
The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indices from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.
The S&P U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index contains U.S.- and foreign-issued investment-grade corporate bonds denominated in U.S. dollars.
The SPUSCIG launched on April 09, 2013. All information for an index prior to its Launch Date is back-tested, based on the methodology that was in effect on the Launch Date. Back-tested performance, which is hypothetical and not actual performance, is subject to inherent limitations because it reflects application of an Index methodology and selection of index constituents in hindsight. No theoretical approach can take into account all of the factors in the markets in general and the impact of decisions that might have been made during the actual operation of an index. Actual returns may differ from, and be lower than, back-tested returns.
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the leading measures of U.S. residential real estate prices, tracking changes in the value of residential real estate. The index is made up of measures of real estate prices in 20 cities and weighted to produce the index.
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
You cannot invest directly in an index.
Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.
These are the views of Platinum Advisor Marketing Strategies, LLC, and not necessarily those of the named representative, Broker dealer or Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named representative nor the named Broker dealer or Investment Advisor gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your financial advisor for further information.
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[1] http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/13/us-markets.html
[2] http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?period1=1483678800&period2=1484283600&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d
http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/history?period1=1483678800&period2=1484283600&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d
[3] http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC/history?period1=1483678800&period2=1484283600&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-idUSKBN14X1EC
[4] https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search
[5] http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/13/us-markets.html
[6] http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-idUSKBN14X1EC
[7] http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2017/1/13/retail-sales-rose-0.6percent-in-december
[8] http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2017/1/13/retail-sales-rose-0.6percent-in-december
[9] http://www.businessinsider.com/stores-closing-macys-kohls-walmart-sears-2016-12
[10] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-13/consumer-sentiment-in-u-s-hovers-near-12-year-high-in-january
[11] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-13/consumer-sentiment-in-u-s-hovers-near-12-year-high-in-january
[12] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-13/consumer-sentiment-in-u-s-hovers-near-12-year-high-in-january
[13] http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-need-earnings-to-be-flawless-to-keep-trump-rally-going-2017-01-14
[14] http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-need-earnings-to-be-flawless-to-keep-trump-rally-going-2017-01-14
[15] https://www.irs.gov/uac/security-awareness-for-taxpayers-the-tax-community-needs-your-help
