Markets posted strong gains last week after struggling for much of October. The S&P 500 had its best weekly performance since May, and the NASDAQ had its first positive week since September.[1] Despite domestic markets dropping on Friday, November 2, the S&P 500 added 2.42%, the Dow increased 2.36%, and the NASDAQ gained 2.65%.[2] International stocks in the MSCI EAFE were also up 3.34%.[3]
What drove market performance last week?
We received a fair amount of data and reports, with the following details holding particular weight for investors:
- U.S.–China trade updates were inconsistent.
Stocks fluctuated widely on Friday, in large part because of contradictory updates on a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China. President Trump said the two countries are a lot closer to an agreement. Larry Kudlow, Trump’s economic advisor, shared a different perspective, indicating the U.S. is not working out a trade deal with China. These conflicting reports contributed to volatility in the markets as investors tried to determine exactly where we stand.[4]
- U.S. corporate earnings were strong but imperfect.
So far, the 3rd quarter earnings season has been a strong one. Of the 74% of S&P 500 companies that have released their data, 78% have beaten their earnings-per-share estimates, and earnings have grown 24.9% year-over-year.[5] However, concerns for at least one major tech company’s projections affected investor behavior.[6] In addition, analysts predict that in 2019, earnings growth will not match the double-digit results we’ve experienced this year.[7]
- Labor market growth beat expectations.
The economy added 250,000 jobs in October, a stronger increase than expected. Wages also rose, posting 3.1% growth over the prior year, the fastest annual growth since 2009.[8] Investors interpreted these results to mean that the Federal Reserve would continue raising interest rates at its projected pace.[9]
Where should you go from here?
If you felt at all whipsawed by last week’s price fluctuations, especially after October’s declines, you weren’t alone. Even if you know that market volatility is normal, it can feel intense in the moment. Right now, many investors are also jumping in and out of popular, crowded stocks, causing market levels to shift more quickly than many people are used to. To navigate these accelerated changes, you need to remove emotion from investing decisions and stick to your long-term vision even more.[10]
Rather than trying to predict what stocks will do in the immediate future, we are here to help you plan for the financial life and legacy you desire. Please let us know if you have any questions about where you are and how to pursue your future.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Monday: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
Tuesday: JOLTS
Thursday: Jobless Claims
Friday: PPI-FD, Consumer Sentiment
| DATA AS OF 11/2/2018 | 1 WEEK | SINCE 1/1/18 | 1 YEAR | 5 YEAR | 10 YEAR |
| STANDARD & POOR’S 500 | 2.42% | 1.85% | 5.55% | 9.10% | 10.89% |
| DOW | 2.36% | 2.23% | 7.46% | 10.11% | 10.48% |
| NASDAQ | 2.65% | 6.57% | 9.56% | 13.41% | 15.64% |
| INTERNATIONAL | 3.34% | -10.42% | -8.78% | -0.23% | 4.02% |
| DATA AS OF 11/2/2018 | 1 MONTH | 6 MONTHS | 1 YEAR | 5 YEAR | 10 YEAR |
| TREASURY YIELDS (CMT) | 2.19% | 2.50% | 2.70% | 3.04% | 3.22% |
Notes: All index returns (except S&P 500) exclude reinvested dividends, and the 5-year and 10-year returns are annualized. The total returns for the S&P 500 assume reinvestment of dividends on the last day of the month. This may account for differences between the index returns published on Morningstar.com and the index returns published elsewhere. International performance is represented by the MSCI EAFE Index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
What Do the Different Filing Statuses Mean?
What are you? That may sound like a trick question, but we’re talking taxes. The IRS provides five different filing statuses: single, married filing jointly, married filing separately, head of household, or qualifying widow(er) with dependent child.
You can only choose one, right? No, not necessarily.
Is it important which filing status you claim? Yes, it’s very important. Your status will determine how much taxes you’ll have to pay.
Ideally, you should choose a category that allows you to pay the least amount in taxes.
So, what do the different categories mean, and which one should you choose?
- Single: Use this if you are not married or are divorced or legally separated under your state law.
- Married filing jointly: If you’re married, you can file a joint return with your spouse. If your spouse dies, you can file in this category during the year of your spouse’s death.
- Married filing separately: If you’re married, you may file two separate returns. This may allow you to pay less taxes. However, if you’re interested in this option, you should try preparing your taxes both jointly and separately (before filing) to determine which one allows you to pay less taxes. This may also work if both you and your spouse want to retain individual responsibility for each own’s taxes.
- Head of household: You may use this filing status if you’re not married (in most cases). The IRS has special rules for using this one; you may use this if you paid more than half of the costs for upkeeping the home where you and a qualifying person live.
- Qualifying widow(er) with dependent child: You can use this status if your spouse died in the previous two years and you have a dependent child.
Check the IRS rules carefully to determine your filing status: https://www.irs.gov/help/ita/what-is-my-filing-status.
Other details may apply, and you can find more information on the IRS website.
This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax advisor.
Tip adapted from the IRS.gov[11]
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Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.
Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets.
International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.
The Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of stocks of technology companies and growth companies.
The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indices from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia.
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
You cannot invest directly in an index.
Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.
These are the views of Platinum Advisor Strategies, LLC, and not necessarily those of the named representative,
Broker dealer or Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named representative nor the named Broker dealer or Investment Advisor gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your financial advisor for further information.
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[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-01/asia-stocks-to-extend-rally-after-trump-xi-call-markets-wrap?srnd=markets-vp
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-aims-for-4th-gain-in-a-row-ahead-of-jobs-report-apples-stock-sinks-on-outlook-2018-11-02?dist=markets
[2] http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=SPX®ion=usa&culture=en-US
http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=!DJI®ion=usa&culture=en-US
http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=@CCO
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/stock-market-triple-digit-gains-for-dow-nonfarm-payrolls.html
[3] https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search
[4] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/stock-market-triple-digit-gains-for-dow-nonfarm-payrolls.html
[5] https://www.factset.com/hubfs/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_110218.pdf
[6] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/stock-market-triple-digit-gains-for-dow-nonfarm-payrolls.html
[7] https://www.factset.com/hubfs/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_110218.pdf
[8] https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2018/11/2/nonfarm-payrolls-rose-250,000-in-october
[9] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-01/asia-stocks-to-extend-rally-after-trump-xi-call-markets-wrap?srnd=markets-vp
[10] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-02/bulls-sit-still-as-u-s-stock-reversals-land-with-record-force?srnd=markets-vp
[11] https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/here-are-facts-to-help-taxpayers-understand-the-different-filing-statuses
