Quarterly Report

­­Friday, September 28, was the last trading day in 2018’s 3^rd quarter, and the S&P 500 posted its strongest quarterly return in nearly 5 years.[1] The Dow also showed impressive returns by beating expectations for the quarter, while the NASDAQ notched record highs against 2017 numbers. For the quarter, the S&P jumped 7.2%, the Dow increased 9.3%, and the NASDAQ moved up 7.1%.[2]
Weekly numbers, however, revealed mixed performances: the S&P 500 slipped 0.54%, the Dow fell 1.07%, and the NASDAQ gained 0.74%.[3] Internationally, the MSCI EAFE dropped 1.07%.[4]
As we learn more about the 3^rd­ quarter, some details from last week offer perspectives on where we stand today.

What We Learned About the 3^rd Quarter Last Week

1. Consumer outlook suggests positive trends continue.
   A few early reports have given us a sense of positive trends in consumer activity during the 3^rd quarter:
   – Consumer sentiment rose in September to finish at healthy levels that beat August’s performance, marking the 3^rd time the index has moved above 100.<a ” href=”#_edn5″ name=”_ednref5″>[5] With personal income optimism hitting a 14-year high, the positive trend suggests that nearly every population group now benefits from the 3^rd quarter expansion.<a ” href=”#_edn6″ name=”_ednref6″>[6]
   – Consumer confidence neared its highest reading since 2000, beating analyst predictions and inching closer to the dotcom’s record highs.[7] This rise came after a surge in August, prompting predictions that spending strength will carry us through 2018.[8] From sentiment boosts in the stock market to positive home-buying trends, consumers remain optimistic.[9]

These numbers suggest healthy consumer outlooks, positive economic attitudes, and possible trends in increased spending.[10]

2. Companies anticipate softer profits.
   Although corporate earnings in the 1^st and 2^nd quarters rose roughly 25%, 3^rd­ quarter corporate earnings may miss that mark. Of the 98 companies in the S&P 500 that have released earnings outlooks, 74 predicted that earnings will fall below expectations from Wall Street. This ratio is the worst since the earnings recession of 1^st quarter 2016.[11]  Even with the softer outlook, analysts still expect the S&P 500 to post numbers that indicate a growing economy.[12]

3. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth shows signs of slowing.
   Core capital goods (not including aircrafts) dropped 0.5% in August after July’s negative performance—as demand for computers, electronic products, and motor vehicles waned. The shift prompted some analysts to revise their 3^rd­ quarter GDP predictions downward. Yet, with a bump in wholesale and retail inventories, overall 3^rd quarter growth remains in positive territory.[13] The Atlanta Federal Reserve now predicts growth to be 3.8%, revised from an earlier prediction of 4.4%.[14]
4. Tariffs start to drag 3^rd quarter growth estimates.
   The early effects of tariffs seem to have surfaced, as exports are now trending negatively. On September 27, the International Trade in Goods report posted numbers that may predict slower 3^rd quarter growth:
   – Exports dropped 1.6% in August, continuing July’s downward trend.
   – Imports rose 0.7% yet have so far posted a trade negative for the quarter.
   – The trade deficit hit $75.8 billion, yet analysts believe this gap will narrow slightly once more 3^rd quarter data emerges.[15]

If this trend involving exports and imports continues, the U.S. dollar may take a hit.16 Meanwhile, on September 24, President Trump added tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, and China responded with its own tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. products. Though negotiations between the two countries have stalled, we will monitor the situation.17 
What’s Ahead
The Federal Reserve remained optimistic last week about the economy, raising the interest rate from 2% to 2.25%. The 3^rd increase this year is no surprise but does suggest confidence in a growing economy and low unemployment numbers, and that a 4^th quarter hike is highly probable.18
With new data coming in, we’ll deepen our understanding of the economy’s performance in the 3^rd quarter. If you have questions about how this may affect you or your financial life, contact us today; we’re ready and happy to help.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Monday: PMI Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending
Wednesday: PMI Services Index
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Factory Orders
Friday: Employment Situation, International Trade

Notes: All index returns (except S&P 500) exclude reinvested dividends, and the 5-year and 10-year returns are annualized. The total returns for the S&P 500 assume reinvestment of dividends on the last day of the month. This may account for differences between the index returns published on Morningstar.com and the index returns published elsewhere. International performance is represented by the MSCI EAFE Index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.


You Have More Time to Challenge IRS Levy
New tax laws enacted in December 2017 extend the time allowed to file an administrative claim or sue for wrongful levy or seizure. The new limit is two years.
Here are the facts about levies and the time extension:

• The IRS can seize and sell property to pay a tax debt. “Property” is defined as wages, money in your bank account, vehicles, and real estate.
• The timeline applies to property the IRS has already sold.
• If you make an administrative claim against the IRS within the two years, the time period is extended for either one of two periods (whichever is shorter):
  • 12 months from the date of the claim filing.
  • Six months from the date the IRS disallowed the claim.
• The rule applies to tax levies made before, on, or after December 22, 2017, as long as the previous nine-month period (prior to the levy) hasn’t yet expired.
• If you receive a “Final Notice of Intent to Levy and Notice of Your Right to A Hearing,” contact the IRS immediately. This may allow you to make arrangements to pay the tax debt before the IRS proceeds with a property levy.

Other details may apply, and you can find more information on the IRS website.
This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax advisor.
Tip adapted from the IRS.gov[20]
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Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.
Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets.
International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.
The Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of stocks of technology companies and growth companies.
The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indices from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia.
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
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Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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These are the views of Platinum Advisor Strategies, LLC, and not necessarily those of the named representative,
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[1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-futures-fall-dow-set-for-worst-week-in-three-months-2018-09-28
[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/28/us-markets-political-turmoil-and-data-take-center-stage.html
[3] http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=SPX&region=usa&culture=en-US
http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=%21DJI&region=usa&culture=en-US
http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=@CCO
[4] https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search
[5] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-consumer-sentiment-cools-a-bit-in-late-september-2018-09-28
[6] http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=485859&cust=mam&year=2018&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top
[7] http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=485922&cust=mam&year=2018&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top
[8] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-consumer-confidence-races-to-near-18-year-high-idUSKCN1LD201
[9] http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=485922&cust=mam&year=2018&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top
10 http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=485922&cust=mam&wiconly=1&lid=0#top
11 https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/26/companies-are-warning-about-declining-profits-and-that-could-be-the-catalyst-for-a-pullback.html
12 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-trend-threatens-one-of-the-stock-markets-strongest-pillars-2018-09-26
13 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/us-capital-goods-orders-trade-data-temper-third-quarter-growth-forecasts-idUSKCN1M71PK
¹⁴ https://money.cnn.com/2018/09/28/investing/stocks-markets-third-quarter/index.html
15 http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=486154&cust=mam&year=2018&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top
16 http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=486154&cust=mam&wiconly=1&lid=0#top
17 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-24/trump-imposes-next-batch-of-china-tariffs-as-trade-war-escalates
18 https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/09/26/fed-raises-rate/1426946002/
20 https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/taxpayers-now-have-more-time-to-challenge-a-levy